UOB - Capital raising concerns diminish

Monday, May 25, 2009

UOB reported a significant improvement in its Tier 1 ratio, from Q4’s 10.9% to 12.3%. We believe this will erase concerns about the bank wanting to raise any capital. Equally important, in our view, the book value did not deteriorate as it had in the last four quarters because of lower write downs of AFS securities and a recovery in equity securities.

Q1 earnings were 9% below our estimate but 6% above consensus. Margins were impressive at 2.41%, an indication of the on-going repricing of its loan book. We were also encouraged by its low cost-to-income ratio of 35.5%. Provisioning was high, but expected. 46% of it was general provisioning.

We intend reviewing our estimates and price target once all three local banks have reported their results.

The stock trades at 11.7x earnings and 1.5x book 09E. Our price target is derived by using the Gordon growth model with the key assumption being an ROE of 11% and COE of 8.6%.


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